Simplified formulae for designing coastal forest against tsunami run-up: one-dimensional approach   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Nguyen Ba Thuy  N. A. K. Nandasena  Vu Hai Dang  Norio Tanaka 《Natural Hazards》2018,92(1):327-346

In the present study, laboratory experiments were conducted to validate the applicability of a numerical model based on one-dimensional nonlinear long-wave equations. The model includes drag and inertia resistance of trees to tsunami flow and porosity between trees and a simplified forest in a wave channel. It was confirmed that the water surface elevation and flow velocity by the numerical simulations agree well with the experimental results for various forest conditions of width and tree density. Further, the numerical model was applied to prototype conditions of a coastal forest of Pandanus odoratissimus to investigate the effects of forest conditions (width and tree density) and incident tsunami conditions (period and height) on run-up height and potential tsunami force. The modeling results were represented in curve-fit equations with the aim of providing simplified formulae for designing coastal forest against tsunamis. The run-up height and potential tsunami forces calculated by the curve-fit formulae and the numerical model agreed within ± 10% error.  相似文献   

Statistical analysis of large accidents in China’s coal mines in 2016     

Xiao Wang  Fan-bao Meng 《Natural Hazards》2018,92(1):311-325

  相似文献   

Carbon dioxide emission reduction quota allocation study on Chinese provinces based on two-stage Shapley information entropy model     

Kejia Yang  Yalin Lei  Weiming Chen  Lingna Liu 《Natural Hazards》2018,91(1):321-335

Chinese central government made a commitment to achieve a 40–45% reduction in carbon dioxide (CO₂) per unit of GDP by 2020 compared with 2005. This targeted reduction was allocated averagely among all the provinces rather than individually according to different situations of each province. Though some research has been done regarding this rough allocation, two shortcomings in previous studies exist: Firstly, CO₂ marginal abatement cost (MAC) has been ignored as one of the CO₂ emission reduction allocation indexes. Secondly, either subjective or objective method has been used rather than comprehensively of both subjective and objective method to calculate the weight of each index in the previous studies. In order to fill the gaps, this paper builds a two-stage Shapley information entropy model to allocate CO₂ emission reduction quota among the Chinese provinces based on the equity and efficiency principles. Afterward, three CO₂ emission reduction quota allocation scenarios have been proposed. The results show that the CO₂ MAC is an indispensable index in CO₂ emission reduction quota allocation, because its value of CO₂ Shapley information entropy is the highest among five indexes. CO₂ emission reduction quota of lower-MAC provinces should be allocated larger, while the quota of higher-MAC provinces should be allocated smaller. Therefore, two suggested policies have been proposed: First, differential CO₂ emission reduction quota allocation should be proposed. Second, synergetic development should be promoted.  相似文献   

A comparative frequency analysis of three standardized drought indices in the Poyang Lake basin,China     

Guixia Yan  Zhiyong Wu  Denghua Li  Heng Xiao 《Natural Hazards》2018,91(1):353-374

Regional drought frequency analysis was carried out in the Poyang Lake basin (PLB) from 1960–2014 based on three standardized drought indices: the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the standardized Palmer drought index (SPDI). Drought events and characteristics were extracted. A Gumbel–Hougaard (GH) copula was selected to construct the bivariate probability distribution of drought duration and severity, and the joint return periods (T _a ) were calculated. Results showed that there were 50 (50 and 40) drought events in the past 55 years based on the SPI (SPEI and SPDI), and 9 (8 and 10) of them were severe with T _a more than 10 years, occurred in the 1960s, the 1970s and the 2000s. Overall, the three drought indices could detect the onset of droughts and performed similarly with regard to drought identification. However, for the SPDI, moisture scarcity was less frequent, but it showed more severe droughts with substantially higher severity and longer duration droughts. The conditional return period (Ts|d) was calculated for the spring drought in 2011, and it was 66a and 54a, respectively, based on the SPI and SPDI, which was consistent with the record. Overall, the SPI, only considering the precipitation, can as effectively as the SPEI and SPDI identify the drought process over the PLB under the present changing climate. However, drought is affected by climate and land-cover changes; thus, it is necessary to integrate the results of drought frequency analysis based on different drought indices to improve the drought risk management.  相似文献   

ENSO and IOD analysis on the occurrence of floods in Pakistan     

Asif Iqbal  Syed Ahmad Hassan 《Natural Hazards》2018,91(3):879-890

Different techniques have been used to discuss the existence of significant relation between the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Various studies present their interaction and influence on the natural disasters (i.e. drought, flood, etc.) over large parts of the globe. This study uses a Markov chain method to investigate the relation between the ENSO and IOD for the period of 62 years (1950–2011) and aggregates their influence on the occurrence of floods in Pakistan. Both data sets show similarities in the formation of transition matrices and expected number of visits from one state to another. The strong values of 2-dimensional correlation and high self-communication of the transition states confirm the existence of a possible relation between ENSO and IOD data. Moreover, significant values of dependency and stationary test endorse the applicability of the Markov chain analyses. The independent analysis shows that strong events of both data sets are co-occurred in the same flood years. During the study period maximum number of floods was observed during summer monsoon season. However, further analysis shows that after 1970, Pakistan observed the highest percentage of floods occurred per year during El Nino, Non-ENSO and positive IOD years. These observations and results demonstrate that climate variability especially ENSO and IOD should be incorporated into disaster risk analyses and policies in Pakistan.  相似文献   

Local site effect of a clay site in Shiraz based on seismic hazard of Shiraz Plain     

Alireza Eskandarinejad  Hamid Zafarani  Mojtaba Jahanandish 《Natural Hazards》2018,90(3):1115-1135

Propagation of seismic waves through soil layers would drastically change the frequency content and amplitude-based features of ground motions at the surface. These alterations are known as seismic site effects. Computation of site effects of high-populated areas such as large cities is of great importance (e.g., it is used in development of seismic microzonation of a region). Shiraz is one of the most populous cities of Iran and is located in a high seismic hazardous region. A representative clay site in this city is selected to assess local site effects. The time series and random vibration theory procedure in the frequency domain are implemented to analyze the aforementioned site. Furthermore, the nonlinear dynamic soil behavior is simulated by the equivalent linear method and the nonlinear method via DEEPSOIL program. Three types of soil column uncertainties such as shear wave velocity, modulus reduction, and damping ratio of soil layers as well as depth of underlying rock half-space (D _bed) are considered herein. The mean amplification and standard deviation of natural logarithm of amplification factors are computed for a variety of analysis types. The results of the current study show that the computed mean and standard deviation of amplification factor in ln units by considering only V _S uncertainty are in good agreement with the corresponding ones by considering V _S and modulus reduction and damping ratio variabilities simultaneously for the studied site. Furthermore, it seems that the effect of bedrock depth in definition of spectral shapes of the Iranian seismic building code should be taken into account.  相似文献   

Stability and sensitivity analysis of Himalayan road cut debris slopes: an investigation along NH-58, India     

T. Siddque  S. P. Pradhan 《Natural Hazards》2018,93(2):577-600

The complex geological environment due to active tectonics and varied lithology with multiple phases of deformation and metamorphism led to a rugged topography and large destabilization of slopes in the Himalayan region. However, the ever-rising activities due to various ongoing developmental and urbanization processes in the region are contributing to instability of slopes. The significant number of causalities and massive economic loss is deliberately endangering Himalayan ecosystem due to landslide-related phenomena. Transportation corridors within Himalayan terrain experience frequent landslides, particularly the sections manifested by debris slopes. From several decades, the national highway-58, in Uttarakhand, Himalayas, has been endangered due to diverse and incessant slope failures. The present investigation demonstrates the stability appraisal along the strategic transportation corridor. These studies incorporate the various issues and causes pertaining to debris slides from Rishikesh to Devprayag, Uttarakhand. The numerical simulation assessment was undertaken by deterministic and sensitivity analyses by conventional limit equilibrium methods which is being augmented by much advanced and robust finite element tool. Factor of safety for each slope was determined, and correspondingly, best efficient slope stabilization remedies were proposed to enhance the stability of slopes. It is recommended that such strategic slope stability assessment should be performed within different vulnerable sections of the Himalayas and likewise regions for fruitful and sustainable step toward disaster mitigation.  相似文献   

Examination of the structural characteristics arising in gypsums by the GPR and MASW methods (Sivas,Turkey)     

Naşit Darıcı  Sevda Özel 《Natural Hazards》2018,93(2):661-676

This study was performed at an area of 50?×?48 m² being defined as a new settlement in the northeast of Sivas. In the study, the discontinuities that are not deep and their geophysical characteristics were examined by the GPR and MASW methods. For interpretation, GPR cross sections were prepared as 2D–3D, and MASW cross sections were prepared as 2D. As for geophysical cross sections, about 10 m depth was examined. It was understood that the reflections observed in the form of hyperbolas in GPR cross sections correspond to areas having low S wave velocity (V_s) in MASW cross sections. It was understood that the S wave velocities are lower than 653 m/s, that the seismic velocities in between 653 and 275 m/s indicate partially deteriorated areas and that the S wave velocities of unweathered gypsums are higher than 1275 m/s at these low-velocity zones. Thus, it was thought that the fill material that may arise in the fracture, crack and deterioration areas arises from intercalation and clastic gypsum units, and that it plays a role in having low value S wave velocities. In all the geophysical cross sections, it was understood that the structures with gypsum are intense at the initial 5 m. And a fracture at the south of the study area, that it was estimated might be longer than 40 m, was determined as the largest gypsum structure. It was understood that this fracture starts from a depth of about 5 m in the west and that it slopes down to 7 m depth in the east. According to these results, it was understood that the damage amount arising in time in the gypsum structures from the effect of water may increase, the study area was defined as risky, and the required importance should be attached to these structures especially in foundation engineering.  相似文献   

Regional modelling of rainfall-induced runoff using hydrological model by incorporating plant cover effects: case study in Kelantan,Malaysia     

Shattri Mansor  Nader Saadatkhah  Zailani Khuzaimah  Arnis Asmat  Nor Aizam Adnan  Siti Noradzah Adam 《Natural Hazards》2018,93(2):739-764

The objective of this paper is to develop a spatial temporal runoff modelling of local rainfall patterns effect on the plant cover hilly lands in Kelantan River Basin. Rainfall interception loss based on leaf area index, loss/infiltration on the ground surface, and runoff calculation were considered as the main plant cover effects on the runoff volume. In this regard, a hydrological and geotechnical grid-based regional model (integrated model) was performed using Microsoft Excel^® and GIS framework system for deterministic modelling of rainfall-induced runoff by incorporating plant cover effects. The infiltration process of the current model was integrated with the precipitation distribution method and rainfall interception approach while the runoff analysis of integrated model was employed based on loss/infiltration water on the ground surface with consideration of water interception loss by canopy and the remaining surface water. In the following, the spatial temporal analysis of rainfall-induced runoff was performed using 10 days of hourly rainfall events at the end of December 2014 in Kelantan River Basin. The corresponding changes in pressure head and consequent rate of infiltration were calculated during rainfall events. Subsequently, flood volume is computed using local rainfall patterns, along with water interception loss and the remaining surface water in the study area. The results showed the land cover changes caused significant differences in hydrological response to surface water. The increase in runoff volume of the Kelantan River Basin is as a function of deforestation and urbanization, especially converting the forest area to agricultural land (i.e. rubber and mixed agriculture).  相似文献   

Logistic regression model for sinkhole susceptibility due to damaged sewer pipes     

Kiyeon Kim  Joonyoung Kim  Tae-Young Kwak  Choong-Ki Chung 《Natural Hazards》2018,93(2):765-785

The occurrence of anthropogenic sinkholes in urban areas can lead to severe socioeconomic losses. A damaged underground sewer pipe is regarded as one of the primary causes of such a phenomenon. This study adopted the best subsets regression method to produce a logistic regression model that evaluates the susceptibility for sinkholes induced by damaged sewer pipes. The model was developed by analyzing the sewer pipe network as well as cases of sinkholes in Seoul, South Korea. Among numerous sewer pipe characteristics tested as explanatory variables, the length, age, elevation, burial depth, size, slope, and materials of the sewer pipe were found to influence the occurrence of sinkhole. The proposed model reasonably estimated the sinkhole susceptibility in the area studied, with an area value under the receiver-operating characteristics curve of 0.753. The proposed methodology will serve as a useful tool that can help local governments to choose a cavity inspection regime, and to prevent sinkholes induced by damaged sewer pipes.  相似文献